Anticipate Disruption: Become The Disruptors Of Today’s Age with Dan Burrus
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Episode Summary:
It is no longer enough to just be reactive and agile in this fast-paced world of technology and disruption. More than agility, we need to learn how to anticipate disruption and become the disruptors of today’s age. Dan Burrus has been predicting technological change for 30 years and encourages people to start speaking in future facts so that you can solve the problems before they comes to you. If you think things can be done, then it can be done. The question is are you going to be the one doing it? Dan shares how you can become the disruptor and strategically position yourself when the disruption happens.
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Our guest on The Successful Pitch is Dan Burrus, the author of The Anticipatory Organization. Dan says, “It’s not enough to just be agile with disruption. You need to anticipate it so that you can be smart about it.” He said, “When you really look at life, there’s some real key things that if you think something can be done, it probably will be done and somebody else is going to do it if you don’t do it.” He said, “Stop giving opinions when you pitch and start speaking in future facts. Before you ask someone to say yes or no to something, tell them what the cost is of saying no.”
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Anticipate Disruption: Become The Disruptors Of Today’s Age with Dan Burrus
The Anticipatory Organization: Turn Disruption and Change into Opportunity and Advantage
Our guest is Dan Burrus. He’s considered as one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and innovation expert. He’s the CEO of Burrus Research, which is a research consulting firm that monitors global advances in technology driven trends to help clients profit from technology, social, and business forces. Over the past 30 years, he’s established a worldwide reputation for his exceptional record of predicting the future of technology change. He was talking to me about all the things he’s done around the world, including China. He’s a strategic advisor for many Fortune 500 companies ranging from GE, American Express, IBM, Honda, etc. He’s the author of six books, most recently Flash Foresight and The Anticipatory Organization: Turn Disruption and Change into Opportunity and Advantage. He’s also started six companies from scratch. Five were profitable within the first year. He’s a keynote speaker and has spoken to groups as large as 14,000 people. I am fortunate to have him one-on-one. Dan, welcome to the show.
It’s a pleasure to be with you.
I always like to ask my guests if you could tell us your story of origin. You can go back as far as you want to when you were a child or when you were in college. How did you decide this is the trajectory of my career?
The two most important times in a person’s life are the day you’re born and the day you find out why you were born. I’m very fortunate to have found out long ago why I’ve been put on the planet and that is to teach. As long as you understand, in my mind, that teaching and learning are connected in symbiotic and the same thing. Rather than tell audiences and clients, I teach audiences and clients, and that’s something that I’m passionate about. I want to create as much value for our audience as possible. I have started six companies over the years in a variety of areas. All of them were based on doing things that hadn’t been done before. Three of them were national leaders in the first year. Five were profitable in the first year. First one was in aviation. I had my own airplane design. I was a test pilot for my own design. Had 37 national locations in the first year with that company. One of the last companies I started was an experiment. When I was writing my book, Flash Foresight, which I’m happy to say was the New York Times and Wall Street Journal Bestseller, we were in a recession when I started. I thought, “Why not start a company based on the principles of the book? Let’s see how good the book is.”It took us seven months to generate $1.1 million a month in recurring revenue with no employees and no money invest, so obviously the book worked.
Before that, just to go a little farther back, I taught biology and physics before starting my first company. I’m a science guy and all of my methodologies on how to predict the future and separate the wheat from the chaff is based on scientific methodologies. I started Burrus Research 34 years ago, and that’s when I developed my principles on how to predict the future and separate the things that will happen from the things that might happen, and then started advising and consulting. My portfolio of what I do is I write articles. I had 113 articles published last year. I’ve been doing that for over 30 years. I write books; this is number seven. I give speeches; I’ve given many of those, but I also do strategic advising. I’m a Strategic Advisor to the Joint Chiefs and the Head of the DOD and the Head of Cyber Security for the US. I’m also a Strategic Advisor to the top people at GE, IBM and many others.
Anticipate Disruption: The two most important times in a person’s life are the day you’re born and the day you find out why you were born.
You have a science background. My memory of being in class in science was if you’re going to test something, don’t change more than one variable at a time. Isn’t that right, Dan?
Yes, otherwise you don’t know what is taking place.
One of the biggest mistakes I see people make in business is, “Let’s test, let’s change the headline and the image of an ad at the same time, and see if that helps.” I’m like, “How are you going to know which one it is?” The fact that you have a scientific approach to helping all of us deal with change, disruption and technology, is a key element of why you’re so successful.
Let me give everyone a tip for writing blogs, because I’m sure many people do that. Instead of just putting them out there one after the other, what I did is I started analyzing the number of readerships within the first two days and how many people were reading because you can get statistics like that. One blog, I might have 240,000 people read it in the first two days. Another one, I might have 2,000. That’s a big difference. The key is I thought, “They were both good. What was different?” By analyzing one thing at a time and starting to break it apart and then make changes along the way, for example on LinkedIn, I’ve got 975,000 followers. I’m in the top 35 in the world. The reason is whenever I write something, I had been upping my game and I got a couple million monthly blog readers. That’s because I had been taking one thing, separating it, changing it, finding out what works, what doesn’t work, instead of just pumping it out there. It’s a little food for thought for all those that are writing blogs and doing posts.
Let’s dive into this wonderful, Anticipatory Organization Model that you’ve created. One of the things you shared with me was unlike a lot of people who maybe started with a business that come up with this idea, they tried to take it out and see if anybody’s going to use it. You have developed these learning principles for years and the military is using your training. You know this works, so the book came out of proven ways to deal with how to deal with things. Some people say, “If I adapt or an agile to change,” and you say, “That’s not enough, you have to anticipate the change.”
Let’s take a second on that because there is a lot on agility now. Most companies think that agility is the best weapon against the accelerating pace of change. There are even programs in books called Agile Innovation, but if you think about it, agility is really reacting fast. Agility is still reactive. In other words, instead of saying, “Agile innovation,” you should say, “Reactive innovation,” which doesn’t sound as good. I would say, “Did the people that came up with a multi-billion-dollar idea of Uber or the multi-billion-dollar idea of Airbnb, did they use agility? Could that have helped them?”No, that didn’t help them at all. What helps companies like Amazon and others to be able to leap ahead with the confidence that will make them know they’re on the right path? You need to be able to react, but I want us to anticipate.
[Tweet “Agility is not enough you need to anticipate disruption.”]
A coin has two sides. You need to be good at agility because you can’t predict everything. You can’t predict that much. There are a lot of things you can’t predict, so you better be agile. The other side of the coin is the missing part that I’m filling with this book, and that is you’ll be amazed at how much you can predict, how many problems you can see ahead of time and pre-solve, how many disruptions you can see, but for the disrupt, giving you the option of making disruption an advantage to yourself so that you can be the disruptor, and how many game changing opportunities you can accurately predict ahead of time. What I’m doing is covering the other side of that two-sided coin that is needed to be able to turn all of the changes that we’re facing into opportunity.
I’m always trying to give people skills to tell a great story like you just did. To our audience, did you notice how Dan gave you a visual image and didn’t make one thing right and one thing wrong? He said, “There are two sides of the same coin,” so you could see the words on both sides of that coin and how one without the other is not enough. Leading right into that, we bought into your premise that we need to anticipate change, not just be agile with it. There’s a great takeaway in your book about hard trends versus soft trends. Can you give us an example of each?
There is no shortage of trends. Deloitte publishes on IBM that everybody’s got trends. The problem is which ones are going to happen and which ones aren’t? That’s what I can give you with this book and with this mindset that I’m trying to help you to create. This is based on over 30 years of research. There are two types of trends, hard trends and soft trends. Instead of me coming along and telling all of our audience, “I have the only good list of trends and everyone else’s trends are bad.” I’m saying, “No, what I did have is a methodology that I can teach you so that no matter whose trend you’re looking at, you can tell whether it’s going to happen for sure or whether it’s an if or a maybe.”That’s powerful because if you know it’s going to happen before it happens, you have an advantage.
Hard trends are based on what I call future facts. You can’t change them; you can’t stop them. I don’t care how much money you’ve got or what kind of political power you have. They’re going to happen anyway. The good news is you can see them happening. You can see them coming down the road. It’s like being in an ocean. If you’re looking down at the sand and the waves lapping at your feet, you don’t get a view out. If you look out, you can see the waves coming and you can say, “There’s a bigger wave, I’ve got to move back or I’m going to get wet.”You can pre-act, so that you don’t end up getting in trouble. It gives you the ability to see what’s up ahead.
Soft trends have, you might think, “Dan doesn’t care about soft trends. It’s only about the future of certainties that he’s concerned about,” and the answer is no. Soft trends have very big value. The reason why they might happen, some are negative, some are positive. I can shape them; I can influence that. If there is a positive hard or soft trend, I want to make sure it happens. I’ve got to do some things because there’s no guarantee this is not a future fact. It’s based on an assumption. Hard trends are based on future facts. Soft trends are based on assumptions. There are two types of assumptions: hard and soft assumptions. Soft assumption is an assumption that you’ve made in your mind. You’re thinking of it as a future fact, but it’s an assumption and it’s based on all of your years of experience, everything that you’ve experienced. It’s like looking at the future by looking up in a rear-view mirror rather than looking out through the windshield. Because of the transformational changes and exponential growth of technology, your old view of the future based on everything you’ve known and learned might be out the window. You just haven’t seen that yet. That’s a big risk.
A soft assumption isn’t research. It’s based on intuitive insight based on past history. It makes sense to you, but you didn’t do what would make it a hard assumption, and that is you didn’t do your homework. You didn’t do your research. When the Affordable Care Act, which is called Obamacare, was put into place, there was an assumption that enough young people would sign up to offset the old people that are more expensive that signed up. That was a soft assumption somebody made. They didn’t research it. Turned out it was an invalid assumption and it’s like, “Whoops, that didn’t work out the way we planned.”That’s because they didn’t research it, but it made sense to somebody. Soft trends have the value that you can change them if you don’t like them. There is a twenty-year growing trend in the United States that obesity is rising. More and more people are becoming obese and so are diseases like Alzheimer’s and diabetes. They’re going up, and they’re expensive. There was a big study that was done by the United States to look at the year 2025 to see where those trends would be on obesity and diabetes and to see how many people would be there. They came up with a number and it was a big number. The reason was because they got to figure out how to pay for it because the number of obese people is growing. Are those hard trends that are unstoppable or are those soft trends that you could influence? What do you think?
Anticipate Disruption: The technology is already there. Do it right now and somebody’s going to make a lot of money on that.
Having read your book, I know that it’s a soft trend. Although I thought it was a hard trend that was never going to stop, but there are things that with new technology and drugs, there are a lot of things that could influence and turn that trend around.
Let’s take obesity. Everybody’s getting fatter. Soon, it’d be going up. Not everyone, but the numbers. A company in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, they’re an international company called Manpower, decided to do something about it a couple of years ago. They realized they can’t change the world. They can’t change everybody in the United States, but they can change manpower. What can we do to influence that soft trend? What they did is they gave everybody Fitbits and have company and team competitions. My sister as an Executive at Manpower, and one of the things that her team is doing is climbing Mount Kilimanjaro in the number of steps they take and there are prizes. They’ve been doing it for several years and they have, as a company and they’re a good size company, have lowered cholesterol, gotten people off of medications, have lowered weight, have done amazing things. They’ve actually changed that obesity number for manpower. They couldn’t change the world, but we can change what we can change. That is a soft trend?
It goes back to when you’re running your own business. If you measure something, you can then start to increase your awareness of what’s working, not working. Then in the case of eating, maybe you go, “There’s a goal of how many steps I’m supposed to do every day. I didn’t even know that. The fact that I’m tracking it automatically changes my behavior and therefore, the outcome.”The same thing is true in your business that you’re running. That’s such a great example of looking for a problem and saying, “It’s too big to change,” and figuring out a way to slice it into something that can be changed.
Let’s go back to hard trends. The book is not complex. I would hope you would agree with that. The key is I’ve been taking complex things and making them simple. That’s the trick and I think I’m pretty good at that. Let’s talk about the hard trend certainties. There are only three categories. One is technology, one is demographics, and one is regulations. Let’s talk about demographics for a minute. In the United States, there are 78 million baby boomers. Hard trend. They’re going to get older. They’re not going to get younger, they’re going to continue to get older. We could predict very easily a lot of opportunities as well as a lot of challenges.
Could you and I create a smartwatch or a smart watch app that would have huge success right now, even though there’s a lot of competition for that? The answer is, “Sure. We just use the hard trend of demographics and the aging population.” I would create a smart watch, for example, that is for 80-year olds and older. Are they going to buy it? No, they’re not going to buy it. Who’s going to buy it? You’re going to buy it for them. Why do we do that? All of those smartwatches that exist today and the new ones have a little thing called an accelerometer in it that lets you know movement. If your old grandma, all of a sudden, her watch rapidly moves four feet, what happened to grandma? She fell. How does grandma need to know she fell? She’s on the floor. Who needs to know? You, if it’s your grandma. If grandpa gets a little lost when he’s driving because he gets forgetful. All he’s got to do is ask his watch, “How do I get home?” His watch can say, “Walk up and take a block or to the right.” Where is grandpa? Look at your smart phone, you can see.
I was visiting two women who are in their 80sthat don’t want to wear that necklace saying, “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up.”They live alone, and I thought, “The statistics show you’re likely to fall living alone and who knows how long until somebody finds you.” They would wear a watch but not that device because of their vanity. “I have to wear a watch anyway. If the watch happens to have that device that I could push and if the watch was waterproof, I could wear it in my shower where it’s slippery and I might fall.” You’re onto something there, Dan.
We could do more, and there’s only so much time. That kind of watch application for 80 years old and older and I even just began to tell you what. It could do two things but it could do a lot. That doesn’t exist. Do you think that that watch is going to exist or it isn’t going to happen?
I would like to think it’s going to exist because I see a need for it and the baby boomers is a hard trend. That’s not going away, so I’m going to say it’s going to eventually exist.
I’m going to teach all of you a guiding principle. If it can be done, it will be done. If you don’t do it, someone else will. In this case, the need is there. The technology is already there. Do it right now, and somebody’s going to make a lot of money on that. It’s going to get done. You’re going to be reading about that that’ll happen. What’ll happen is, “I’ll wait. Nobody does it. I’ll just do it myself.” You already want one, so we know it would work.
[Tweet “Stop giving opinions and speak in future facts.”]
Technology is a way that changes our world on us and it causes disruption. This is book number seven, I’ve written thousands of articles. If you track all of that, you would see I’ve got an amazing track record of being right about telling you the disruptions that will happen before they will happen. You can learn to do this, that’s what this book is about. You can’t see everything but you can see so much. Like in my 1993 book, Techno Trends, I was talking about the smartphones that we have today, like the Apple watch, iPhones. I was talking about social media. That was in ‘93 when that book came out, putting accurate time frames on it. It isn’t just about me doing it, I want you to learn how to do it, that’s why I wrote this book.
Speaking of being on top of things, you have this amazing interplay between something that’s possible, useful, and exceptional, and you talk about why Apple didn’t release the iPhone two years earlier and why didn’t Netflix start streaming video. I was really riveted by that.
You see the hard trends and soft trends will give you what will happen next. The other element that the book gives you is when will it happen? There are three digital accelerators that have been on a completely predictable path for over 30 years that I’ve been tracking, and they give you the wind. One is computing power. It’s based on Moore’s Law of processing power doubles every eighteen months as the price drops in half. I discovered that back in 1983. I can tell you not many people were looking at Moore’s law in ‘83, but I came and because I’m a science guy, I realized he nailed it. Just imagine for a second, here I am at 83. Pricing power doubles every eighteen months as the price drops in half, so in the year 2000, I would know exactly how powerful a computer it would be and how much it would cost. If I know that, I can tell you a lot about how we use it. I can do that today for the year 2025 and so can you, but you need more than processing power. I’m calling it computing power because now with our smart phones and devices, we’re tapping into the super computers in the cloud, not just the chips in our devices. Exponential Moore’s law is going to continue.
Secondly, it’s storage and bandwidth. My first computer didn’t even have a hard drive. Today, bandwidth has 3G wireless, 4G wireless. You’ve probably read a little bit about 5G. Is that it or can you predict what we’ll call the next one? Using these curves that I talk about in the book, you can know when six is coming out, when seven’s coming out, and how powerful it would be. When you know that, you can see how the drive timing. The iPhone didn’t come out a year earlier or two years earlier, even though they could miniaturize the parts and create it earlier. Here’s why they didn’t. The user experience would have sucked. Bandwidth wasn’t there. In other words, the video wouldn’t have worked that good. The storage wasn’t quite enough yet. It would have been a crummy experience, so they had to wait for those three digital accelerators to get to the spot where the user experience would be good enough to put it out there. It’s been getting better ever since in a predictable way.
That’s fantastic insights and realizing that timing is, in fact, everything. When someone’s giving a pitch to get a new client or to get hired or to get their startup funded, whatever it is, one of the key questions is, “Why now?” You’ve certainly been able to give us some great tools to predict when something’s going to happen. Let’s talk about this premise you have about the dangers of rear-view mirror thinking.
Can I give you one more tip on obese? I know that’s one of your big focus areas and I’m trying to help you create value for people. Think of it this way. I want all of you, when you’re giving a pitch, to stop giving your opinion. For example if I give you, “Here’s what Dan Burrus thinks the trends are,” what are you going to say? I’m now going to see what Deloitte’s going to say and what all the other guys are going to say, but if I start speaking in future facts, I have done the homework to look at my customers and the hard trends that are shaping their business and their future. I start going and talking in terms of, “These are the future facts that are going to be impacting you.”When you hear a future fact, you know it. You don’t need a white paper to prove you’re right, so when you start speaking in terms of the hard trends that will impact them and then tie your product or service through those things that are going to happen, all of a sudden, the risk is going down and they have high levels of certainty. The uncertainty opens the door to a sale. Nothing better than a confused customer. You know what the ultimate closing tool is? It’s certainty. When you are certain, you write a big check, you say yes. When you’re uncertain, you hold back. What I want us to do in our pitches is to talk about future facts and the certainty and not just the cost of the yes about your product or service you’re selling but based on the future and the hard trends shaping the future. Let me tell you the cost of the no. Make sure you share the cost of the no based on the future facts, not just the cost of the yes. When you really look at that, you’re going to find out the no is more expensive than the yes.
Anticipate Disruption: Legacy thinking is we’re looking into the future but we’re looking at a rear-view mirror mindset.
Two great takeaways: Stop giving opinions and speak in future facts. Finally, make sure you talk about the cost of not taking action now because everybody wants to think things over. The longer you wait, the bigger this problem is going to be or somebody else is going to do it.
I’m going to give my pitch to a competitor and they may say yes. How would you like that?
Let’s jump back to this rear-view mirror thinking. I love the imagery of it.
We’ve all heard of legacy technology and that’s the older systems. We have virtualization, the cloud, and the newer systems, but legacy technology doesn’t worry me as much as legacy thinking. Legacy thinking is we’re looking into the future, but we’re looking at a rear-view mirror mindset, meaning it’s based on our past perspective. It’s the things that we’ve known. The pace of change was fast but not exponential. New technology came out but came out kind of slow. I could take my time and next year will be pretty much like this year with a few variables. That’s all rear-view mirror thinking, when you start realizing that right now, a kid could come along and disrupt your business without even having to get a lot of funding. I did an experiment at the last company I started where I decided to create a business with no money and no employees and see if these hard trends, soft trends worked well. This was the end of 2009, beginning of 2010. What I did is I created the first national real estate apps because they didn’t exist and I knew that was a hard trend. They would exist because I know if it can be done, it will be done. If I don’t do it, someone else will. I skipped my problem.
I’m not a programmer, so how am I going to do it? What I did is I called a nearby university, asked for the Computer Department, talked to the Head of the department and I said, “I want the name of an undergraduate who’s getting a degree in software programming and design, who is smarter than all the teachers.” He said, “You mean Steve?” I said, “Yeah, Steve.” I called Steve and I asked what he was doing for money on the side. He was programming websites for companies and he was bored because he’s been doing it since junior high. I said, “How’d you like to develop a mobile app that no one’s ever seen before?” He said, “Yes, I’m in.” I said, “I can’t pay you money but I can give you 5% of the revenue of the profits of it after the first two years as long as you don’t drop out of school.” He said, “I’m in.” Now, I had my free developer. It took seven months to launch that. We were the 17th most downloaded app in the Apple store. In the first day, we were featured in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal because I was disrupting the entire world of real estate within the first week. I was on national television the next week.
I came up with a new way of making money on that, because at that time, the only way you can make money on an app was paying for the download, like¢99 and you download it. I like recurring revenue, so if I will do what everybody else did, that would’ve ended up with just a small amount of money. Instead, I made the apps free so that I had large people using them. What I did instead was I charged $24.95 for real estate agents for having an exclusive zip code within the app. That’s how I ended up with $1.1 million in recurring revenue in a few months. It’s about redefining and reinventing. It’s realizing that everything can be made different, that if you don’t do it, someone else will if it’s based on a hard trend certainty.
You showed us how to skip the problem. Let’s talk about the other thing that seems incongruous, taking big leaps. It can be a low risk.
That comes a little bit around to the whole idea of hard trends. Hard trends are going to happen anyway. You can’t stop them. If you want to innovate with low risk, what you need to do is ask yourself, “What am I certain about? What do I know what’ll happen?” I gave you the story of me launching that for the first real estate apps. I have since licensed to Zillow and companies like that but the foundational software is coming from that. The day that I decided to do mobile apps, there was a headline news on CNN that very day that said, “If you’re thinking of developing a mobile app, it’s too late. There are already 100,000 apps in the Apple store.” That was around the end of ‘09. A lot of people will listen to that and think, “There are already 100,000 apps. I guess it was too late.” I looked at the hard trends and I thought to myself, “Will there be mobile apps for purchasing logistics, supply chain management, customer support? Will there be apps for remote disease monitoring? Will there be apps for finding my lost dog where I can have it on a collar and I can see where the dog is on my phone?”
I knew this national real estate apps were going to happen, and if I didn’t do it, someone else would. If you learn how to separate the hard trends from the soft trends as I’m teaching you in this book, if you learn how to do that and then you innovate around those hard trend certainties, you will find yourself able to do those things with the low risk because you’ve got confidence. Certainty gives you the confidence to make bold moves.
[Tweet “Skip the problem.”]
Don’t listen to people saying, “You’re too late,” but also within this rear-view mirror thinking, you need to say, “If I see driverless cars are coming and I’m a truck driver, which I found out is one of the largest, if not the largest employer in every single state of first jobs, I might want to figure out what I’m going to do when the trucks are driving themselves as opposed to thinking, “That’s not going to happen during my lifetime. I don’t have to worry about it.” That’s what you talk about in the definition of rear-view mirror thinking.
There’s a little side note. I was meeting with the CEO of Daimler Trucks. They make the engine transmission and the body. The only thing they don’t make is the brand on the outside of the semi-trucks. I was in Iceland having a strategic meeting with him a number of years ago and I said, “There’s going to be a semi driverless, autonomous semi-truck. You ought to create it.” I said, “Is that a hard trend?” He agreed it was. It took him less than a year and Daimler was the first to do a driverless truck. It took them 12 months because he realized that it can be done. “It will be. If I don’t do it, a competitor will.” It gave him the confidence to do something that he had never considered when I met him in Iceland. Once he realized that was a hard trend, he knew he had to do it and he did.
The book is The Anticipatory Organization: Turned Disruption and Change into Opportunity and Advantage. I can personally tell you, I’ve underlined, and dog-eared so many pages. This is going to be my new Bible. I’m going to keep looking at it. I really love how you talk about, “It’s a choice that we make every day to be extraordinary.” You are someone who is extraordinary. Dan, how can people follow you? I know you have so many followers already, but how can we follow you on Twitter, et cetera?
You can go to Burrus.com. There are some great videos and resources that you can find like blogs. @DanielBurrus is my Twitter handle. @DanielBurrus is probably the handle for all of those things. The reason I have a lot of followers is I’m trying to create a lot of value for people. I’ve got the number one spot on Amazon in Hot New Books and so you can go on Amazon or any of those others to order The Anticipatory Organization.
It’s going to be another hit. That is a hard trend I would bet money on. Thanks, Dan.
Links Mentioned:
- Dan Burrus
- Burrus Research
- Flash Foresight
- The Anticipatory Organization: Turn Disruption and Change into Opportunity and Advantage
- Manpower
- Techno Trends
- @DanielBurrus Twitter
- Daniel Burrus Facebook
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